Ever scroll through market stats and wonder what they actually mean for your next move in Lincoln Park, Macon, IL? You are not alone. Reading the numbers the right way helps you price with confidence, negotiate smarter, and time your sale or purchase. In this guide, you will learn how to interpret months of supply, days on market, and list-to-sale ratios for condos and single-family homes, plus how to build custom comps that fit your property. Let’s dive in.
Why local metrics matter in Lincoln Park
Lincoln Park is a smaller submarket within Macon County, so a single listing or sale can swing the numbers. That is why you should read metrics by property type and price band rather than relying on headlines. Condos and single-family homes can behave very differently at the same time.
You also want to account for the local realities that drive the data. Building-level concentration for condos, HOA factors, and seasonality can all shift demand, pricing, and timing. A careful, segmented view gives you a clearer signal.
Key metrics to know
Months of supply
What it tells you: How long it would take to sell all current listings at the recent sales pace. Lower months of supply typically signal stronger seller leverage; higher months of supply often favor buyers.
Formula: months of supply = active listings / monthly sales rate. The monthly sales rate is the count of closed sales in the last 30 days, or a rolling average over 30, 90, or 180 days to smooth volatility.
How to use it:
- Compare condos vs single-family and break by price bands. Aggregate numbers can hide opposing trends.
- As a general benchmark, about 6 months is often described as balanced. Under 3 months leans seller-favorable; above 6 months leans buyer-favorable. Context still matters.
- In low-volume areas like Lincoln Park, small sample sizes can swing this metric. Use both 30-day and 90-day views and watch the trend, not just one data point.
Days on market (DOM)
What it tells you: The time from listing to contract acceptance. Shortening DOM signals stronger demand or sharper pricing; lengthening DOM often points to softer demand, overpricing, or property-specific issues.
Know your data: Some MLS systems report cumulative DOM (includes relists) while others reset on relist. Confirm which is used so you do not get false signals from relisting.
How to use it:
- Compute the median DOM over 90 or 180 days. Median is more robust than average when there are outliers.
- Look at distributions when you can. A concentration of very fast sales with a few long-stale listings is a different story than a uniformly slow market.
List-to-sale ratio
What it tells you: The percentage of the list price the home ultimately sold for. It can be calculated as sale price divided by original list price, or as sale price divided by final list price after cuts. Be consistent and note which version you use.
How to use it:
- Ratios around 98 to 100 percent often indicate a market that is roughly clearing. Above 100 percent suggests bidding competition. Below about 98 percent suggests room to negotiate.
- Compare condos vs single-family and split by price tiers. Unique or higher-priced properties often sell below list if the initial pricing anchored high.
A simple workflow for Lincoln Park data
1) Define clean segments
Separate condos from single-family detached and filter out atypical sales that can distort results, such as estate sales, foreclosures, or transactions with unusual terms. Keep notes on what you exclude and why.
2) Choose windows that reduce noise
Use rolling windows to smooth a small market:
- Months of supply: compute using both 30-day and 90-day sales rates.
- DOM and list-to-sale ratios: calculate over 90 and 180 days for stability.
- Keep a 12-month backdrop for context but rely on shorter windows for current decisions.
3) Set sample-size guardrails
Avoid strong conclusions when a segment has fewer than about 10 to 20 sales in your lookback period. Report sample sizes alongside each metric and use medians with interquartile ranges whenever possible to show spread.
Build custom comps you can trust
Start with map and time frame
Begin with a tight geofence in Lincoln Park, typically 0.5 to 1 mile or the same neighborhood boundary. Use the most recent 90 to 180 days for comps. If you need to go older, apply a reasonable market adjustment and document your assumptions.
Make apples-to-apples adjustments
Use price per square foot as a starting point, then adjust for:
- Bedrooms, bathrooms, and overall square footage.
- Condition and updates, including kitchens, baths, mechanicals, and roof.
- Lot size and outdoor space for single-family homes.
- For condos: HOA fees and any known assessments, assigned parking or storage, amenities, and building condition or litigation risk.
Segment by price bands and property type
Create sensible price tiers based on recent Lincoln Park sales. Then compare condos to condos, and single-family to single-family within each band. This helps you avoid mixing markets that behave differently.
Example: Reading today’s snapshot (hypothetical)
Here is a simple illustration of how you might read a moment-in-time view:
- Condos: 12 active listings and 3 sales in the last 30 days yields 4 months of supply. That leans toward balanced with a slight seller tilt.
- Single-family: 18 active listings and 2 sales in the last 30 days yields 9 months of supply. That suggests buyer’s market pressure.
- Cross-check: If condos also show a short median DOM and a list-to-sale ratio near or above 100 percent, while single-family shows longer DOM and a list-to-sale ratio around 96 percent, the signals align.
These numbers are illustrative only. Always cite your lookback window and sample sizes when you present results.
Local factors that move Lincoln Park numbers
Condo concentration and HOAs
If most condos sit in a few buildings, one new listing or a withdrawal can jump the condo months of supply. HOA fees, special assessments, and building condition can also impact demand and pricing.
New construction and conversions
A planned conversion or a new condo building can increase supply quickly, pushing months of supply higher even if buyer demand is steady. Track building permits and upcoming projects.
Financing patterns and appraisals
A rise in FHA or VA financing can shift contract timelines and appraisal dynamics. Appraisal gaps can affect list-to-sale ratios if negotiations occur late in the process.
Seasonality and year-over-year checks
Smaller markets often have a more pronounced spring selling season. Compare the same months year over year to separate seasonal patterns from true shifts in demand.
Rental and owner-occupant mix
Investor activity can compress DOM and support stronger list-to-sale ratios for condos. Watch the rental share and investor interest when you interpret condo trends.
Data pitfalls to avoid
- Small sample error. In Lincoln Park, a few sales can skew the picture. Use rolling measures and show sample sizes.
- Off-MLS activity. Pocket listings or off-market deals can bias supply and DOM metrics. Note what is not captured.
- Timing mismatches. Align your snapshot of active listings with the sales window you use for the monthly sales rate.
- List-price strategy shifts. If sellers suddenly price low to spark competition, short-term list-to-sale ratios may move above 100 percent.
- DOM relist effects. Confirm whether your DOM is cumulative or resets on relist so you do not read artificial speedups as real demand.
How often to review and what to track
Check your Lincoln Park metrics monthly. Weekly views can be noisy in smaller markets unless activity spikes. Keep a lightweight dashboard that tracks:
- Months of supply by property type and price band (30- and 90-day rates).
- Median DOM with interquartile ranges and sample size.
- List-to-sale ratio, clearly noting whether you use original or final list price.
- A simple note on known local factors each month, like HOA updates, new permits, or shifts in financing.
Turn your insight into strategy
If you are buying a condo
Watch months of supply by building and compare HOA fees and assessments across options. In a tighter condo segment, be ready with pre-approval and clean terms. If supply climbs in your price band, you may gain negotiation room.
If you are selling a single-family home
Align list price with recent, true comps and current DOM trends. Make targeted improvements that matter to marketability and time-to-contract. High-impact presentation, including staging and strong digital marketing, can keep your DOM competitive and protect your list-to-sale ratio.
If you are an investor
Track the price bands where DOM is shortest and list-to-sale is firmest. This is where rehab-to-resale plays often move fastest. Build conservative comp sets, document adjustments, and plan contingency ranges, especially when sample sizes are thin.
Why partner with a data-driven team
A segmented, rolling read on Lincoln Park’s condo and single-family trends can add real money to your outcome. Spacematch pairs that discipline with operator-level execution: tech-forward listing marketing, in-house staging and contractor coordination, and experience with creative financing and investor strategies. Whether you are buying, selling, or running a rehab-to-resale plan, we bring data clarity and hands-on delivery in one team.
Ready to translate the numbers into a smarter move in Lincoln Park, Macon, IL? Connect with Spacematch Inc.. We Spacematch you to the right home.
FAQs
How often should I check months of supply in Lincoln Park, Macon, IL?
- Review monthly and use rolling 30- and 90-day sales rates to reduce noise; weekly checks are only useful when activity is unusually high.
What is a good list-to-sale ratio for Lincoln Park homes?
- Around 98 to 100 percent often indicates a market that is clearing; above 100 percent signals competition, while below about 98 percent suggests negotiation room.
How do I interpret DOM for condos vs single-family in Lincoln Park?
- Use median DOM over 90 to 180 days and compare by property type and price band; faster condo DOM with steady list-to-sale can point to stronger condo demand.
Can relisting distort days-on-market in Macon County MLS data?
- Yes. Confirm whether your source uses cumulative DOM or resets on relist; cumulative DOM provides a clearer picture of real time-to-contract.
Why do condo statistics swing more than single-family in small markets?
- Condo inventory can be concentrated in a few buildings and is sensitive to HOA factors and investor activity, so a single listing or event can move the metrics significantly.
